TOPIC PAGE: Coronavirus, oil price direction – impact on chemicals | ICIS

2022-07-29 19:08:38 By : Mr. Colin Zhang

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on 27 July lowered its global growth forecast for this year to 2022, partly owing to the COVID-19 lockdowns in China.

The war between Russia and Ukraine has also resulted in a substantial deterioration of the global economic environment, according to the IMF, with headwinds from the conflict resulting in weaker GDP growth expectations for 2022 and into next year.

World real GDP has seen its first contraction since 2020 in the second quarter of this year, the IMF said in its latest world economic outlook report.

“World real GDP is estimated to have shrunk in the second quarter—the first contraction since 2020—owing to economic downturns in China and Russia,” the IMF said in the report.

The fund slashed its global GDP growth expectations for 2022-23 compared to forecasts last quarter, by 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points respectively.

Global GDP growth is now projected at 3.2% this year and 2.9% in 2023, according to IMF estimates.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB)  earlier this month cut its GDP growth forecast for developing Asian countries to 4.6% from its previous projection of 5.2%, with China’s growth lowered by a full percentage point to 4.0%.

On this topic page we analyse the impact of coronavirus and oil price dynamics on chemical markets and bring together the latest news reported by ICIS. 

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OUTLOOK: China’s oxo-alcohols weighed by slow demand recovery, increasing supply By Claire Gao 29-Jul-22 16:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s oxo-alcohols markets will face downward pressure from slow recovery of demand and increasing supply, although the outlook of export is promising.

OUTLOOK: US EDC likely to re-enter global markets in 2H as macroeconomic headwinds change flows By Bill Bowen 29-Jul-22 05:56 HOUSTON (ICIS)–US ethylene dichloride (EDC) is likely to see weakened demand and greater availability in the second half of 2022 as demand for its downstream derivative polymer weakens on less construction activity amid macroeconomic headwinds.

INSIGHT: Europe industry facing difficult August as gas supply concerns mount By Nigel Davis 29-Jul-22 00:14 LONDON (ICIS)–It is almost like stepping back in time, with industrial sectors in Europe vying for the attention of governments and lawmakers to try to secure operations should the region’s gas crisis escalate.

S Korea’s S-Oil Q2 net income more than doubles; Q3 PX spread to weaken By Nurluqman Suratman 28-Jul-22 13:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–S-Oil’s second-quarter net income more than doubled year on year on strong refining margins and robust aromatics demand, but the South Korean producer’s paraxylene (PX) spread is expected to weaken in July-September 2022.

SE Asia August PE offers stable to soft but Vietnam market under intense pressure By Izham Ahmad 28-Jul-22 11:22 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Initial spot import offers for August shipments of polyethylene (PE) in southeast Asia were announced either stable or softer this week as buying sentiment continued to be depressed by the slump in demand from China.

VIDEO: China’s new EVA capacities to weigh on Q3 sentiment By Joanne Wang 22-Jul-22 12:29 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Watch ICIS senior industry analyst Joanne Wang discuss the ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) capacity increases in China and the recently launched EVA China RMB index.

Chinese ethanolamines slump weighs on sentiment in Asia and India By Clive Ong 22-Jul-22 10:45 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The ongoing slump in the ethanolamines market in domestic China continues to weigh on sentiment of players in Asia and India.

OUTLOOK: European MMA demand uncertain amid wider economic challenges By Mathew Jolin-Beech 21-Jul-22 23:24 LONDON (ICIS)–The European methyl methacrylate (MMA) market is facing uncertain H2 demand amid wider geopolitical and economic challenges.

Asia BDO remains weighed down by ongoing Chinese market slump By Clive Ong 21-Jul-22 16:53 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian butanediol (BDO) market continues to be impacted by the ongoing slump in the Chinese domestic sector. Sentiment has turned increasingly bearish with participants anticipating further weakness in the near term.

OUTLOOK: US MEG market expected to get longer through Q3 By Melissa Wheeler 21-Jul-22 05:10 HOUSTON (ICIS)–The monoethylene glycol (MEG) market is expected to remain long through Q3 as suppliers continue to offer more product.

PODCAST: China’s base oils demand to be better in autumn, imports to decline YOY in H2 By Whitney Shi 20-Jul-22 15:11 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ICIS analyst Jady Ma and Whitney Shi discuss the outlook of China’s base oil market in this episode.

Prolonged heatwave could hinder operations at Europe petrochemicals plants By Jonathan Lopez 19-Jul-22 18:09 MADRID (ICIS)–High temperatures across Europe could reduce operating rates at some petrochemicals plants, as cooling operations become more difficult, trade groups have warned.

OUTLOOK: Middle East base oils market to face stable-to-soft demand in H2 By Izham Ahmad 19-Jul-22 10:46 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Middle East base oils spot market is expected to still face uncertainties in the final half of 2022 as supply of most grades is expected to be mixed, with demand expected to remain stable to soft due to sluggish economic growth and global automotive sales.

World petrochemical sentiment weak as demand falters By Felicia Loo 15-Jul-22 14:12 SINGAPORE (ICIS)-Global petrochemical markets are mired in a challenging situation writ large, with demand dull as recession risks gather pace.

VIDEO: Asia adipic acid demand struggles to reach pre-lockdown levels By Josh Quah 15-Jul-22 14:01 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Watch ICIS editor Josh Quah discuss developments in Asia’s adipic acid market.

PODCAST: Chems sector resilient in Q2 but conditions forecast bleak for H2 By Tom Brown 14-Jul-22 18:44 LONDON (ICIS)–Projected second-quarter financial data for BASF hints that conditions for chemicals players may have been stronger than expected in the second quarter of 2022, but rising COVID-19 infection numbers in China only add to the slew of bearish news for the second half of the year.

PODCAST: China’s LDPE facing continued supply pressure By Joanne Wang 14-Jul-22 10:28 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–In this episode, ICIS analyst Jady Ma and Joanne Wang discuss the recent developments and outlook of China’s low density polyethylene (LDPE) market.

Europe PET high prices detrimental to sales in bearish climate By Caroline Murray 13-Jul-22 23:15 LONDON (ICIS)–The peak season for polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottlers in Europe is the summer but the combination of extraordinarily high prices and the unstable economy is affecting sales.

China PP hits lowest levels this year on slumping crude, weak demand By Lucy Shuai 13-Jul-22 16:43 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s polypropylene (PP) prices fell to their lowest levels this year from slumping crude oil and weak downstream demand, on concerns of a global economic recession.

Crude falls nearly $2/bbl on fresh China COVID-19 curbs By Nurluqman Suratman 12-Jul-22 11:08 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices fell by nearly $2/bbl on Tuesday morning on worries over fresh COVID-19 restrictions in China, the world’s biggest crude importer.

INSIGHT: Demand uncertainty pressuring prices as downturn gathers momentum By Nigel Davis 11-Jul-22 23:43 LONDON (ICIS)–Movement in the ICIS weekly and monthly petrochemical indexes illustrate the strain being put on producers to hold prices in the face of increasing demand uncertainty and the volatile feedstock and energy cost environment.

European melamine spot prices stable-to-soft; Q3 contract talks ongoing as supplier and consumer pricing ideas clash By Melissa Hurley 08-Jul-22 00:44 LONDON (ICIS)–European melamine third quarter contract discussions continued this week. More progress is expected towards the end of the week, heading in to next week. Talks between suppliers and consumers are divisive as pricing expectations remain unmatched.

PODCAST: Europe’s oxo-alcohols chain faces demand erosion amid economic uncertainty By Mathew Jolin-Beech 07-Jul-22 22:03 LONDON (ICIS)–The European oxo-alcohols chain faces a slowdown in demand from end use sectors as the wider geopolitical and economic uncertainties begin to bite. This ICIS podcast explores the latest developments for oxo-alcohols and its derivative markets.

PODCAST: Global shortage of MEK eases, though US prices remain high By Nick Cleeve 07-Jul-22 17:58 LONDON (ICIS)–Methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) prices are softening globally as supply constraints ease, although prices in the US, a net importer, remain at extremely high levels, drawing exports from Asia and Europe.

Asia petchems mired in bearishness on elevated recession fears By Felicia Loo 07-Jul-22 11:21 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian petrochemical markets are in a jam, with price bearishness across the board as recession risks continue to mount.

OUTLOOK: Tight supply concerns flip to reduced oil demand by Q4 By Barney Gray 07-Jul-22 00:49LONDON (ICIS)–Oil prices were in a post-Covid recovery phase prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. Since then, H1 crude prices have been driven by the fallout from the war, reaching record highs. But the oil market will be characterised by major volatility and rising uncertainty as we head into H2.

PODCAST: UK chemicals fighting Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse – CIA CEO By Will Beacham 05-Jul-22 22:48 LONDON (ICIS)–The UK chemicals industry is battling the quadruple challenges of Brexit, COVID-19, the cost of living crisis and the war in Ukraine, according to Stephen Elliott, CEO of UK trade group the Chemical Industries Association.

OUTLOOK: Demand for low-end R-PET to continue to shrink By Arianne Perez 04-Jul-22 15:03 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Low-end applications of recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) will become less popular as the more competitive virgin PET continues to eat into its market share.

China’s propylene faces headwinds from ample supply, weak demand in June By Yi Liang 04-Jul-22 10:21 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s domestic propylene market continues to face headwinds from ample supply and sluggish end-user demand in June, with market sentiment turning bearish.

Mideast petchem market sentiment bearish on weak demand By Felicia Loo 01-Jul-22 11:30 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Sentiment in the Middle East petrochemical markets is bearish, as demand is tepid against a backdrop of ample supply. The soaring inflation rates have led to a reduced purchasing power, weakening buyers’ appetites.

Asia AA and acrylates largely lower; sentiment softer on China downtrend By Li Li Chng 29-Jun-22 21:20 SINGAPORE (ICIS)— Asia’s acrylic acid (AA) and acrylate esters spot discussions were under pressure, with market sentiment bearish amid a downtrend in China.

PODCAST: China PP to face uncertainties in H2 ’22 amid high costs By Lucy Shuai 29-Jun-22 17:47 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ICIS analysts Jady Ma and Lucy Shuai discuss the recent developments and outlook of China’s polypropylene (PP) market.

PODCAST: Europe and Middle East isocyanates demand slows By ICIS Editorial 29-Jun-22 17:09 LONDON (ICIS)–Isocyanates Europe editor Zubair Adam discusses current demand and supply market trends for Europe with isocyanates Middle East editor Damini Dabholkar.

US ethylene begins Q3 with ample supply, eroding margins By John Donnelly 29-Jun-22 05:45 HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US ethylene market is seeing ample supply, lower margins but decent derivative demand heading into Q3.

INSIGHT: Energy demand rebound at a time of crisis, bp stats show By Nigel Davis 28-Jun-22 23:39 LONDON (ICIS)–Here is the energy crisis writ large. The chart, from bp as it released its latest Statistical Review of World Energy on Tuesday, shows the sharp rebound in energy consumption as COVID-19 restrictions eased and global economic activity recovered.

PODCAST: Isocyanates face high costs, squeezed margins in H2 – ICIS analysts By Morgan Condon 28-Jun-22 21:02 LONDON (ICIS)–The isocyanates market is faced with steep production costs and weakening demand across downstream sectors, presenting the industry with a darkening outlook.

European PVC shows signs of lengthening on demand, global trends By Chris Barker 28-Jun-22 17:29 LONDON (ICIS)–European polyvinyl chloride (PVC) contract prices for June have settled with rollovers to decreases compared to May, with indications that the outlook for availability has lengthened compared to earlier in the year.

Asia ADA trade flows punch above weight in May By Josh Quah 24-Jun-22 13:57 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Northeast Asia adipic acid (ADA) markets logged a large trade surplus in May, according to import-export data captured by ICIS Supply and Demand Database.

Europe capro, nylon 6 markets face slow summer demand By Marta Fern 24-Jun-22 00:35 LONDON (ICIS)–European caprolactam (capro) and nylon 6 markets are facing persistent soft demand, which could weaken further in the coming months while the costs of production are on the rise.

VIDEO: Asia MEG may face more challenges in H2 2022 By Judith Wang 23-Jun-22 17:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Watch ICIS Senior Editor Judith Wang discuss current developments in Asia’s monoethylene glycol (MEG) market and its outlook.

China’s NBR import offers plummet with domestic losses, soft demand By Ai Teng Lim 23-Jun-22 15:56 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s import offers for acrylonitrile butadiene rubber (NBR) are at year-low levels, as sellers tried to chase deals with wider discounts.

Tight tonnage and robust demand push Asian chemical tanker market, sentiment bullish By Luffy Wu 23-Jun-22 14:37 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Asian chemical tanker shipping market saw overall upward pressure amid high global bunker levels and regional tonnage tightness, drained by robust long-haul activities and clean petroleum product (CPP) markets.

PODCAST: How may China respond to looming global energy crisis? By Bee Lin Chow 23-Jun-22 13:32 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ICIS analysts discuss how China may respond to what seems like a looming global energy crisis.

US SBR demand healthy from tyre sector, but tyre imports growing By Amanda Hay 23-Jun-22 05:34 HOUSTON (ICIS)–US styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand healthy for tyres, but North American tyre manufacturers face growing tyre imports.

INSIGHT: Don’t stifle chemicals now in the face of energy uncertainty and climate reform – UK industry By Nigel Davis 22-Jun-22 22:20 LONDON (ICIS)-The UK chemical industry is now 6% larger than at the onset of the pandemic, chief executive of the country’s sector trade group, the Chemical Industries Association (CIA), said last week.

PODCAST: China benzene prices hit 8-year high; cost and supply support to persist By Yoyo Liu 17-Jun-22 10:37 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ICIS analyst Jady Ma and Yoyo Liu discuss the recent developments and outlook of China’s benzene market.

Asian BD buying slows as domestic China tumbles By Ai Teng Lim 17-Jun-22 09:48 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Sentiment was duller in this week’s spot talks for Asian butadiene (BD) imports, as buyers retreated after the domestic China market suffered heavy losses early-week.

PODCAST: Europe PET speculation rife in face of diverging upstream dynamics By Caroline Murray 17-Jun-22 00:07 LONDON (ICIS)–Mixed xylene prices are skyrocketing higher than PX prices and concerns over negative margins mount. PX June contract talks are ongoing. By contrast, MEG supply remains lengthy and demand has been low, pressuring down spot prices. The June MEG contract price also remains unconfirmed.

INSIGHT: PET, politicians and TikTok – the industry’s battle for our attention By Matt Tudball 16-Jun-22 22:17 BRUSSELS (ICIS)–The battle for our attention is a fierce one. In the post-COVID-19 world, as employees we feel a sense of email overload and Zoom fatigue while as a consumer we face a constant bombardment of media telling us what we should be doing, thinking, eating, drinking and watching.

Asian petrochemicals to rebound in June amid bumpy recovery – ICIS analysts By Ann Sun 16-Jun-22 12:12 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian petrochemical market is expected to be generally firmer in June given higher crude prices and easing lockdowns in China, according to a latest Price Forecast by ICIS analysts.

PODCAST: Global base oils supply and refinery margins to stay under pressure in H2 By Eashani Chavda 15-Jun-22 22:35 LONDON (ICIS)–ICIS editors Eashani Chavda, Samantha Wright and Amanda Hay are joined by ICIS analyst Mike Connolly to discuss the latest developments in Europe and US base oils markets. Key topics include: supply shortages, shifting trade flows, refinery margins and additive shortages.

PODCAST: Chemical distributors see inflation hurting demand, downturn in prospect By Will Beacham 14-Jun-22 22:03 BARCELONA (ICIS)–Rising inflation is now hurting demand for chemicals, raising the prospect of a broad economic downturn later this year or in 2023, according to chemical distributors.

China PE finds support from stimulus policies; eyes on demand performance By Sijia Li 14-Jun-22 14:57 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s domestic polyethylene (PE) market entering June has found support from stimulus policies and costs. Looking ahead, players are focusing on demand recovery, with the easing of lockdowns in multiple regions amid decreasing COVID-19 infections.

India domestic LAB prices rise; China demand improves as lockdowns ease By Clive Ong 10-Jun-22 11:53 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–India’s domestic prices for linear alkylbenzene (LAB) have spiked on the back of rising costs, but some players expect some headwinds with the monsoon season kicking off.

Oil prices drop more than $1/bbl on partial lockdowns in China By Nurluqman Suratman 10-Jun-22 11:34 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices fell more than $1/bbl on Friday on renewed demand fears after fresh COVID-19 lockdown measures were announced in China, but tight supply concerns capped losses.

INSIGHT: Sustainability to remain the key driver for Asia recycled polymers By Arianne Perez 10-Jun-22 11:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Capacity expansions of recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) and recycled polyethylene (R-PE) faced delays amid the onslaught of COVID-19, particularly last year, but overall growth of Asia polymers recycling is set to continue with sustainability as the main driver.

PODCAST: European ACN market keeps a close eye on ammonia and propylene By ICIS Editorial 09-Jun-22 18:35 LONDON (ICIS)–The European acrylonitrile (ACN) market has good supply and some softening demand, but costs remain high. In this latest podcast, ICIS deputy managing editor Jane Massingham (Europe) talks to managing editor fertilizers, Julia Meehan and senior editor on olefins, Nel Weddle about the ammonia and propylene markets and what to expect in the months ahead.

PODCAST: Asia benzene, styrene short-term outlook to hinge on demand-supply balance By Jasmine Khoo 09-Jun-22 11:35 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s benzene prices have hit an all-time high on strong performance from the US amid the turnaround season, while styrene price gains have been lagging behind due to weak performance in the styrenics sector. In this podcast, Jasmine Khoo speaks with editors Angeline Soh and Trixie Yap on benzene and its key downstream styrene monomer (SM) and styrenics sectors.

China PP exports may fall on narrow price gap with SE Asia By Lucy Shuai 08-Jun-22 17:09 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–With the lifting of COVID-19 lockdowns in China, as well as stimulus policies to boost the economy, China’s polypropylene (PP) prices have rebounded since late May. However, as PP prices have fallen in the southeast Asian market, China’s PP exports may fall in June due to a narrow price gap.

VIDEO: China PP demand set to improve in June as restrictions ease By Lucy Shuai 08-Jun-22 16:21 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Watch industry analyst Lucy Shuai share her insights on the rebound seen in China’s polypropylene (PP) market following the easing of strict COVID-19 curbs in the country.

Asia Q3 biodiesel market sentiment to stay weak on poor European demand By Felicia Loo 07-Jun-22 12:13 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The third-quarter market sentiment for southeast Asian palm methyl ester (PME) biodiesel is expected to remain weak amid poor buying requirements from Europe, a key importing region for southeast Asian material.

Germany’s chemicals hit hard by China lockdowns, automotive sentiment improves – Ifo By Jonathan Lopez 03-Jun-22 16:49 MADRID (ICIS)–Lockdowns in China to contain the coronavirus pandemic have had a major impact on export-intensive industrial sectors in Germany such as chemicals, research institute Ifo said on Thursday.

Asia MEG rebounds on higher crude, demand recovery expectations By Judith Wang 03-Jun-22 10:50 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s monoethylene glycol (MEG) weekly prices rebounded during the week amid stronger crude values and expectations of demand improvement due to easing lockdowns in Shanghai.

Global chem production fell 2.9% year on year in April By Stefan Baumgarten 03-Jun-22 01:57 HOUSTON (ICIS)–Global chemical production volumes in April fell 4.1% month on month and 2.9% year on year, and they were off 0.4% year on year for the first four months of 2022, ICIS senior economist Kevin Swift said in a report on Thursday.

China methanol to face ample supply, mixed demand performance By Doris He 01-Jun-22 21:05 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s methanol market is expected to face overall ample supply from domestic and overseas producers in the near term, while demand may be mixed from different downstream sectors.

INSIGHT: China, India to be main drivers of PVC supply, demand in Asia By Jonathan Chou 01-Jun-22 11:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The coronavirus pandemic has changed how we live our lives, upending also supply and demand dynamics for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and its related markets.

Over two years on since the pandemic hit, much of Asia has attempted “living with COVID-19” in 2022, with some starting to treat it as an endemic disease.

China SM margins likely to be squeezed by higher costs, weak demand By Tina Zhang 31-May-22 11:55 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Margins in China’s styrene monomer (SM) market are expected to continue to be squeezed in the near term, in view of rising feedstock benzene values and weak demand.

China petrochemical market sentiment upbeat on Shanghai recovery plan By Fanny Zhang 30-May-22 13:27 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s domestic petrochemical market sentiment is upbeat at the start of the week, with demand expected to recover when the two-month lockdown in Shanghai is lifted in June.

Asian epoxy market stable, Chinese domestic market outlook ambiguous By Luffy Wu 27-May-22 11:54 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Asia epoxy resins market saw overall stable market sentiment while buyers exhibited improved price acceptability compared with in April.

Asia nylon market cautious as Shanghai inches towards June reopening By Josh Quah 26-May-22 16:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The lockdowns have been damaging for Asia’s nylon market, with prolonged demand loss particularly felt in the CFR (cost & freight) China market. There have been recent signs, however, that the worst may have passed in the lead up to the reopening of key cities in China.

PODCAST: Weak demand from lubricants, China’s Group II base oil import margins to be negative By Whitney Shi 25-May-22 14:09 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ICIS analyst Jady Ma and Whitney Shi discuss the recent developments and outlook of China’s base oil market.

INSIGHT: China crude consumption softens amid COVID-19 lockdowns By Pearl Bantillo 25-May-22 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s consumption of crude has softened as industrial production is hit by pandemic-related restrictions in place since February, with no sign of the government giving up on its zero-COVID policy.

INTERVIEW: China emergence from lockdowns, stimulus to recharge auto and construction – Covestro CFO By Joseph Chang 25-May-22 05:17 NEW YORK (ICIS)–China’s easing of and potential emergence from COVID-19 lockdowns along with government stimulus should spark a major recovery in its automotive and construction markets, the chief financial officer (CFO) of Germany-based Covestro said on Tuesday.

Asian MMA peaks in May; outlook pending clarity amid easing restrictions in China By Li Li Chng 24-May-22 13:47 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian methyl methacrylate (MMA) peaked in May, after increasing around 17% since H2 February. Market players are awaiting clearer picture on China’s lifting of COVID-19 lockdowns and restrictions.

PODCAST: Europe PE and PP update and outlook By Ben Lake 23-May-22 23:42 LONDON (ICIS)–Senior editor, Vicky Ellis, and market editor, Ben Lake, join forces to discuss a distinct change in the polymers market. The frenzied activity in March and April has given way to a far more relaxed sentiment in May – on the buy-side, at least. Vicky and Ben give their outlook for June and take a look at events that could shake up the markets again.

INSIGHT: China PE demand to rebound from June, but slow road ahead By Amy Yu 23-May-22 18:27 SINGAPORE (ICIS)—China polyethylene (PE) demand is expected to firm as COVID-19 containment measures ease, but the pace of recovery remains hindered by remaining lockdown measures.

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